The number of conflicts in Africa is on the rise, as are victims and the displaced. This thematic area looks at new political orders that emerge as armed non-state actors proliferate. On the other hand, we analyse the transformation of conflicts and warfare themselves, driven by megatrends such as technological innovation and the multipolarisation of the regional order. Our regional focus lies on the Sahel and northern Africa.
The effectiveness of UN peacekeeping in Africa is increasingly being questioned and its legitimacy put to the test. Complex warfare, unrealistic mandates and geopolitical rivalries are hampering progress. Can the UN and AU pave the way for a new era of peacekeeping?
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-WP07
Jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS have gained influence in Niger's Tillabéri region, mobilising local populations with promises of protection and creating opportunities for social upheaval. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective political intervention in fragile contexts.
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-WP06
For decades, policymakers have been calling to save Lake Chad. More recently, they have insisted the shrinking of the Lake was both the cause and consequence of Boko Haram. This narrative is not fully corroborated by scientific research and comes with risks, Vincent Foucher explains in this Megatrends Afrika Spotlight.
L’Iswap, la faction de l’État islamique en Afrique de l’Ouest est aujourd’hui l’un des mouvements djihadistes les plus actifs au monde. Son succès est en partie lié à l’influence et au soutien de l’État islamique (EI), qui a encouragé le mouvement à adopter une gouvernance rationalisée, plus précise et plus bureaucratique, limitant les violences à l’égard des civils musulmans. Cela a provoqué de fortes tensions au sein du mouvement djihadiste nigérian. La faction Bakura résiste à cette rationalisation et reste fidèle à la logique historique du djihadisme, au croisement entre le sectarisme, à la prédation et au clientélisme. L'étude de ce cas permet d'explorer la variété des modèles de gouvernance djihadistes et leurs déterminants.
doi:10.18449/2022MTA-NA01
Megatrends such as climate change, digitalisation, and urbanisation are transforming all aspects of politics, economics and society in Africa. Consequently, they are also affecting conflict dynamics. This Working Paper focuses specifically on how megatrends are altering patterns of foreign intervention in African conflicts. Two aspects stand out: the range of intervening powers is widening, and they are intervening increasingly at arm’s length by delegating to human or technical surrogates.
doi:10.18449/2022MTA-WP02
In northern Ghana, competition over resources has led to the emergence of antagonistic conflicts between ‘autochthonous’ farmers and ‘foreign’ herders. Climate change has acted as an exacerbating factor. New approaches are needed to reverse this worrying trend.
doi:10.18449/2022MTA-PB09