Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
The number of conflicts in Africa is on the rise, as are victims and the displaced. This thematic area looks at new political orders that emerge as armed non-state actors proliferate. On the other hand, we analyse the transformation of conflicts and warfare themselves, driven by megatrends such as technological innovation and the multipolarisation of the regional order. Our regional focus lies on the Sahel and northern Africa.
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Mauritania’s Balancing Act amid Intensifying Algerian-Moroccan Rivalry
Algeria and Morocco are increasingly jostling for Mauritania’s favour. Observers watch for any sign that Mauritania might abandon its neutral stance. The rivalry plays out as much through propaganda as it does in reality – with potentially destabilising effects.
Megatrends spotlight 49, 07.04.2025 -
The Myth of the Gamechanger: Drones and Military Power in Africa
Advanced combat drones are increasingly used in conflicts in Africa. This analysis of the conflicts in Mali, Chad and Sudan shows, their potential to shift the balance of military power between state forces and insurgents depends on symmetrical access to technology, type of warfare and topography.
Megatrends Policy Brief 33, 05.03.2025, 14 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB33
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Dialogue with Jihadists in Niger: Potentials, Limits, Failure
Besides military operations, Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum (2021–2023) used dialogue to address jihadist violence. However, the fragmentation and commercialisation of initiatives and a lack of coordination between civil and military measures hindered the promotion of sustainable peace.
Megatrends Policy Brief 31, 11.12.2024, 10 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2024MTA-PB31
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German Colonialism in Southern Tanzania: Transgenerational Impacts on Resource-Induced Conflicts
Colonialism has enduring effects on Africa’s socio-economic development and political stability. Nancy Rushohora explains how in Tanzania, German rule introduced exploitative economic practices and arbitrary political structures both with transgenerational impact on affected local communities.
Megatrends spotlight 2024 41, 07.11.2024 -
Côte d’Ivoire’s Containment of Jihadist Threats: A Provisional Success?
Jihadist violence has spread from the Sahel to some – but not all – of the coastal countries of West Africa. While Togo and Benin are increasingly affected by attacks, the opposite is true of Côte d’Ivoire (and Ghana). But the Ivorian success stands on shaky foundations, as Denis Tull explains.
Megatrends spotlight 40, 08.10.2024 -
Came to Stay: Niger’s Military Junta Consolidates its Power
One year after the coup, the Nigerien military junta is firmly in the saddle. In this Spotlight, Lisa Tschörner explains how the new rulers are mobilizing the population, staging a successful defence against threats, and expanding partnerships with authoritarian states in order to secure their power.
Megatrends spotlight 36, 05.08.2024
