The Future of Democracy
The number of conflicts in African states is increasing – as is the number of civilian casualties and displaced persons. In this research area, we examine the international context of conflicts in Africa as well as the interplay between the multipolarity of conflict at the international level, fragmentation at the regional level and increasing militarisation at the national level. How do African governments navigate security and foreign policy across these levels? What impact does this have on conflict dynamics, political stability and foreign policy orientation?
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The Leadership Succession in Zimbabwe: Military Generals in the Political Arena
Zimbabwe faces contested leadership succession as President Mnangagwa seeks to extend his rule beyond 2028, facing opposition from military elites aligned with Vice President Chiwenga. Godfrey Maringira analyses the military’s political influence on succession, leaving elections largely symbolic.
Megatrends Policy Brief 45, 17.12.2025, 9 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB45
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Gen Z, Digital Activism, and Regime Change in Madagascar
In this Spotlight Xuefei Shi describes how digital strategies and online coordination enabled young activists in Madagascar to topple a regime within weeks, manifesting a new era of digital activism in Africa.
Megatrends spotlight 61, 29.10.2025 -
Leverage and Limits: What African Actors Make of the New Multipolarity
Africa is entering a new era of multipolarity, with global powers competing to become key partners to the continent. This study analyses the different facets of multipolarity and how African actors respond to both opportunities and constraints arising from the growing interest of foreign actors.
Megatrends Working Paper 21, 08.10.2025, 48 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP21
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Debating Trump 2.0 and Implications for Africa – The Multiple Pressures on Civil Society Organizations
The USAID cuts put strain on Africa’s underfunded civil society organizations and fuel debates about their legitimacy. While CSOs need to diversify their funding sources, European donors should invest in narratives that support an independent civil society and shift their funding to advocacy.
Megatrends spotlight 58, 04.09.2025 -
African Youth and the Future of Democracy
With African youth at the heart of political change, this study draws on Afrobarometer data from 41 countries to examine how the youth bulge, urbanization, and social media use shape young Africans’ support for democracy, voting behavior, and protest participation.
Megatrends Working Paper 20, 21.07.2025, 30 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP20
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How Elections Can Shape Long-Term Political Views: Lessons from the 2005 Ethiopian National Election
Ethiopia has never had a national election as contested as the one in 2005. Afrobarometer data show the long-term effects of this event, such as the former youth's embrace of national rather than ethnic identities or a preference for geographically based federalism.
Megatrends Working Paper 2025 18, 25.02.2025, 17 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP18