For the foreseeable future, political authority in Africa will be increasingly intertwined with and shaped by the megatrends. African societies are becoming younger, larger, more digital, and more urban. They have to adapt to the consequences of climate change and thus make new demands on their states and governments. Social movements are putting pressure on established elites and political systems. These processes of change can promote democratic structures, but also autocratic tendencies. At the moment, the latter trend prevails in many states worldwide. The majority of African countries can be classified as electoral or closed autocracies. We investigate the conditions under which megatrends work in one direction or the other.
African cities need to raise USD 20-25 billion investment in basic infrastructure and USD 20 billion for housing to accommodate urban growth. This brief explores how improving creditworthiness, strengthening subnational financial intermediaries and pipelines of transformative investments may support this.
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-PB11
The working paper finds that urbanisation does not automatically lead to democratisation, but structures the way citizens relate to the state. While urban density facilitates collective accountability demands, the link between urbanisation and individual accountability relationships with the state is less straightforward. The reviewed evidence suggests that the force to reckon with is not the middle class, but rather the poor masses. It is not enough for governments to cater to the elites anymore, as the share of the urban poor becomes too large to ignore.
doi:10.18449/2022MTA-WP03
Disinformation is increasingly informing political discourse. Large-scale campaigns are exercising political influence in countries such as Uganda, Sudan and Mali. Russia’s interference is viewed as particularly problematic. In the fourth policy workshop of Megatrends Afrika, we discussed just what kind of influence disinformation has and how the phenomenon can be countered.
African governments and the AU have supported the development of the continent’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. China, too, has increasingly invested in that sector. This Policy Brief argues that while Beijing meets Africa’s need for the development, helps bridge the telecom gap and contributes to connectivity, there are risks surrounding China’s engagement.
doi:10.18449/2022MTA-PB07
Africa’s rapid urbanization has left experts astonished and policymakers facing significant challenges. In our latest Megatrends Afrika policy workshop, urban governance experts discussed possible pathways to inclusive urbanization.
Ahead of COP27, the EU, Uganda and Tanzania are divided over the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Following an EP resolution, relations are strained. In this Megatrends Afrika Spotlight, Emmanuel Rukundo (IDOS) argues that European climate debates need to reflect on the perspectives of low-income countries.