The number of conflicts in Africa is on the rise, as are victims and the displaced. This thematic area looks at new political orders that emerge as armed non-state actors proliferate. On the other hand, we analyse the transformation of conflicts and warfare themselves, driven by megatrends such as technological innovation and the multipolarisation of the regional order. Our regional focus lies on the Sahel and northern Africa.
In the face of a growing threat of jihadism from the Sahel, this brief investigates how Ghana, Benin, and Togo respond, diversifying security ties beyond traditional allies. Amidst expanding networks and complex regional arrangements, this brief calls for an integrated security cooperation and urges coherence in countering the jihadist threat in the Sahel.
doi:10.18449/2024MTA-PB25
The integration of women leaders into Mali’s peace process between 2020 and 2022 was superficial, belated, and steeped in controversy. But it was a rare case in which women war-makers and mediators could influence high-level peace talks. Today, the Malian experience yields important lessons for mediators and policymakers.
doi:10.18449/2024MTA-PB23
Since 2016, jihadists affiliated with JNIM and ISGS have spread across Burkina Faso, offering resources and protection to marginalized areas while expelling state officials. This has fueled violence, reignited communal rivalries, and routinised armed mobilizations, as the use of weapons increasingly became a commonplace social practice.
doi:10.18449/2024MTA-PB22
Niger was considered the last anchor of stability in the Sahel until 26 July 2023. Then the Western-trained army seized power - and has the support of much of the population. Tensions over the security crisis and the government's lack of legitimacy facilitated the coup and contributed to its success.
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-PB20
Deby is seizing the multipolar disorder as an opportunity to consolidate his power. By capitalizing on Chad's status as one of the region’s last remaining partners of Western states, Deby has relied on French military presence as the ultimate deterrent against his overthrow by force. However, cooperation with the UAE in channelling military assistance to the RSF in Sudan, poses serious domestic and external risks.
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-PB19
The effectiveness of UN peacekeeping in Africa is increasingly being questioned and its legitimacy put to the test. Complex warfare, unrealistic mandates and geopolitical rivalries are hampering progress. Can the UN and AU pave the way for a new era of peacekeeping?
doi:10.18449/2023MTA-WP07