The climate crisis, rapid urbanisation, digital revolution, mass migration and geopolitical power shifts – these are just a few of the megatrends that shape everyday political and social realities in Africa and Europe, presenting states and societies with new and considerable challenges.
Project directors Denis Tull and Wolfram Lacher (SWP) moderate the second panel during the kick-off event.
© Megatrends Afrika
At the virtual launch event of “Megatrends Afrika” on 14 December 2021, we discussed the significance of these transformations with representatives from politics and academia. During the two panels with experts from Africa, Europe and Germany we focussed on two primary questions: what role do megatrends play for African states and societies; and how do they affect African relations with Germany and Europe? The resultant exchange provided us with the thematic background against which we have now begun to work.
Throughout the discussion between Dr. Mathias Hounkpè (Open Society Initiative for West Africa), Dr. Folashadé Soulé (University of Oxford) and Dr. Lori-Anne Théroux-Bénoni (Institute for Security Studies) it became clear that the depiction of megatrends as mere challenges does not adequately encapsulate their nature. Megatrends also offer opportunities and promote progress at the social, political and economic levels.
This is especially true of demographic change, which produces larger and younger populations whose lifeworlds and horizons are more urban and digitally oriented. They have different needs for their states to fulfil and they are placing new demands on established systems and elites. This puts state structures under pressure.
Our panellists agreed that states must find answers to these developments. In the end, it is their task to ensure the well-being of their populations and to offer constructive solutions that help them cope with these transformations. If they fail to do so, citizens will feel socially excluded and the potential for conflict increases.
While we are already feeling the impact of megatrends on both continents, policy makers are still struggling to find political answers. Decision-makers in both Africa and Europe are currently looking for an appropriate way to deal with megatrends, hence the oft-invoked partnership between the two continents and their cooperation ‘at eye level’.
Still, for critics, concepts like these are doomed to a life of lip service. At present, there is little evidence of true partnership between Africa and Europe. In Africa in particular, complaints that the partnership remains an empty formula are pervasive. Thus, the search for a common approach to megatrends is taking place at the most difficult time imaginable.
With their reaction to COVID-19, European Union member states have put a strain on relations with their African neighbours, argued Dr. Karamba Diaby (Member of the German Parliament) and Dr. Alex Vines (Chatham House) in the second panel. The African side is highly critical of border closures and their disadvantageous position when it comes to the global distribution of vaccines. Political trust has been lost, Dr. Diaby noted.
Meanwhile, the desire for strategic autonomy has increased in African states. They want to be perceived as independent actors and are no longer dependent solely on European partners. Germany and Europe must adapt to this, especially as others such as China and Turkey recognise and fulfil this desire.
According to the experts, trade, infrastructure and security policy could represent concrete entry points for German and European policy toward Africa to better recognise the interests of African states. For Dr. Vines, the German G7 presidency and the European Union-African Union summit in February 2022 could provide opportunities that foster discussions on this topic.
Ultimately, Europe can invest in its partnership with Africa by creating dialogue, taking African interests into account and strengthening trust; and it is only through such a partnership that constructive cooperation can address the challenges and seize the opportunities posed by global megatrends.
